Australian Property Market Update – June 2026
May 2026 property price data is out and the numbers tell a story. Let’s dive into the data.
Monthly change
Perth: +1.5% | Darwin: +1.5% | Brisbane: +0.9% | Hobart: +0.9% | Adelaide: +0.5% | Melbourne: -0.8% | Sydney: -0.9%
Sydney and Melbourne were down 0.8-0.9% for the month, basically the same pace as the months before. Annualised, that’s close to a 10% drop, so the pressure is real.
What’s driving the trend
Tracking the rolling 12-month price trend for each capital city against the major policy and rate events since August 2025, the pattern is clear once you line it up: each major tightening event, the cash rate cut in August, MQ pulling back trust lending in October, the APRA DTI cap in November, and the rate hikes from February onwards, lines up with a step down in the trend.
The May negative gearing and CGT reform sits right at the point where most cities had already been sliding for months.
Looking at the trend and the key events, the real turning point looks more like February’s first rate rise, not the May tax changes. The slowdown actually built up over a few months: MQ pulling back trust lending in October tightened credit for a chunk of buyers, APRA’s DTI cap added another layer in November, then February’s rate rise landed on top of all that. By the time the negative gearing and CGT reforms hit in May, the market had already been cooling for months.
A figure like 83% for WA means 83% of suburbs there were worth more at the end of May than at the end of April. The majority of suburbs are still rising, but since February, the share going backwards each month has been creeping up almost everywhere (Hobart is the exception). Worth keeping an eye on over the next couple of months as the full effect of the tax changes works through.
Why is regional still doing so well?
Because Australia is short around 170,000 homes right now, and that gap isn’t closing. The government’s target is 1.2 million new homes over five years to resolve the problem, but it’s on track to fall short by somewhere between 166,000 and 380,000 homes (estimates vary).
New home approvals have been below target for over a year now. As long as that gap stays open, affordable housing, which makes up most of the regional market, tends to hold its value, even when the rest of the market cools off.
This email contains general information only and does not constitute financial, legal or investment advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Always seek advice from qualified professionals before making investment decisions.